PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES
"Loyalty, Hedging, or Exit: How Weaker Alliance Partners Respond to the Rise of New Threats," Journal of Strategic Studies (forthcoming), published online, https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2020.1797690.
"No Business Like FIRC Business: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Bilateral Trade." British Journal of Political Science 47, no. 4 (October 2017): 749-782 (with Paul Zachary and Kathleen Deloughery; pdf).
"You Can't Always Get What You Want: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Seldom Improves Interstate Relations." International Security 41, no. 2 (Fall 2016): 43-89 (with Lindsey A. O'Rourke; pdf; data and replication).
"Forced to Be Free: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Leads to Democratization." International Security 37, no. 4 (Spring 2013): 90-131 (with Jonathan Monten; pdf; data and replication).
"The Illusion of Democratic Credibility." International Organization 66, no. 3 (Summer 2012): 457-489 (with Todd S. Sechser; pdf; data and replication).
"Overt Peace, Covert War? Covert Intervention and the Democratic Peace." Security Studies 19, no. 2 (Summer 2010): 266-306 (with Mary Lauren Lilley; pdf).
"How Smart and Tough Are Democracies? Reassessing Theories of Democratic Victory in War." International Security 33, no. 4 (Spring 2009): 9-51 (pdf; replication data; web appendix).
"Restraint or Propellant? Democracy and Civilian Fatalities in Interstate Wars." Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 6 (December 2007): 872-904 (pdf; replication data; web appendix).
"Draining the Sea by Filling the Graves : Investigating the Effectiveness of Indiscriminate Violence as a Counterinsurgency Strategy." Civil Wars 9, no. 4 (December 2007): 420-444 (pdf).
"Introduction: Modern Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Comparative Perspective." Civil Wars 9, no. 4 (December 2007): 313-323 (pdf).
"Desperate Times, Desperate Measures: The Causes of Civilian Victimization in War." International Security 30, no. 4 (Spring 2006): 152-195 (pdf; replication data; additional table on timing of civilian victimization in interstate wars).
"The Problem with Negotiated Settlements to Ethnic Civil Wars." Security Studies 13, no. 4 (Summer 2004): 230-279 (pdf). Reprinted in Living Together after Ethnic Killing: Exploring the Chaim Kaufmann Argument, ed. Roy Licklider and Mia Bloom (London: Routledge, 2006), 89-139.
"The Holy Land Divided: Defending Partition as a Solution to Ethnic Wars." Security Studies 10, no. 4 (Summer 2001): 58-116 (pdf).
PEER-REVIEWED BOOK CHAPTERS
"Creating a Cordon Sanitaire: U.S. Strategic Bombing and Civilians in Korea," in The Civilianization of War and the Unpredictable Civil-Military Divide, 1914-2014, ed. Andrew Barros and Martin Thomas (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018), 196-220.
"Does Spreading Democracy by Force Have a Place in U.S. Grand Strategy? A Skeptical View." In The Case for Restraint: U.S. Grand Strategy for the 21st Century, ed. A. Trevor Thrall and Benjamin H. Friedman (Abingdon: Routledge, 2018; with Jonathan Monten), 80-107 (pdf).
"Step Aside or Face the Consequences: Explaining the Success and Failure of Compellent Threats to Remove Leaders." In Coercion: The Power to Hurt in International Politics, ed. Kelly M. Greenhill and Peter Krause (New York: Oxford University Press, 2018), 93-114 (pdf).
"It's a Crime, but Is It a Blunder? Investigating the Military Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization." In Civilians and Warfare in World History, ed. Nicola Foote and Nadya Williams (Abingdon: Routledge, 2018), 288-312 (with Kathryn McNabb Cochran; pdf).
"Military Culture and Civilian Victimization: The Allied Strategic Bombing of Germany in World War II." In Civilians and Modern War: Armed Conflict and the Ideology of Violence, ed. Daniel Rothbart, Karina V. Korostelina and Mohammed Cherkaoui (New York: Routledge, 2012), 72-95 (pdf).
"Targeting Civilians to Win? Assessing the Military Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization in Interstate War." In Rethinking Violence: States and Non-State Actors in Conflict, ed. Adria Lawrence and Erica Chenoweth (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2010), 23-56 (with Kathryn McNabb Cochran; pdf).
OTHER SCHOLARLY PUBLICATIONS
“Review of Jason Lyall, Divided Armies: Inequality and Battlefield Performance in Modern War,” H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable 12, no. 11 (May 2021), 7-14 (pdf).
"Review of Melissa Willard-Foster, Toppling Foreign Governments: The Logic of Regime Change," Political Science Quarterly 135, no. 1 (Spring 2020): 152-155 (pdf).
"Correspondence: Reconsidering the Effects of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change," International Security 42, no. 3 (Winter 2017/18): 172-77 (with Lindsey A. O'Rourke; pdf; supplemental materials).
"Correspondence: Friends, Foes, and Foreign-Imposed Regime Change," International Security 42, no. 2 (Fall 2017): 191-95 (pdf; with Lindsey A. O'Rourke).
"Introduction to Roundtable on Jasen J. Castillo, Endurance and War: The National Sources of Military Cohesion," H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable 9, no. 9 (2017): 2-5 (pdf).
"Review of Jessica L.P. Weeks, Dictators at War and Peace." H-Diplo|ISSF Roundtable 8, no. 7 (January 2016), 5-11 (pdf).
"Review of Jessica L.P. Weeks, Dictators at War and Peace." Political Science Quarterly 130, no. 4 (December 2015): 803-04 (pdf).
"Correspondence: Reevaluating Foreign-Imposed Regime Change." International Security 38, no. 3 (Winter 2013/2014): 184-95 (with William G. Nomikos and Jonathan Monten; pdf).
"Why Regime Change Is a Bad Idea in Syria." The Political Science of Syria's War, POMEPS Briefings 22 (December 18, 2013): 61-63.
"Regime Change Doesn't Work." Boston Review 36, no. 5 (September/October 2011): 16-22 (available online here).
"The Myth of Choosy Democracies: Examining the Selection Effects Theory of Democratic Victory in War." H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable 2, no. 12 (July 2011): 64-102 (pdf).
"Review of Hugo Slim, Killing Civilians: Method, Madness, and Morality in War." Journal of Strategic Studies 33, no. 1 (February 2010): 167-169 (pdf).
"Correspondence: Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War." International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): 194-204 (with Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam; pdf).
"Review of Michael C. Desch, Power and Military Effectiveness: The Fallacy of Democratic Triumphalism." Political Science Quarterly 124, no. 2 (Summer 2009): 342-344 (pdf).
"Review of Tanisha M. Fazal, State Death: The Politics and Geography of Conquest, Occupation, and Annexation." International History Review 30, no. 4 (December 2008): 845-847 (pdf).
"More Borders, Less Conflict? Partition as a Solution to Ethnic Wars," SAIS Review 26, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 49-61 (pdf).
"Targeting Civilians in Wartime," Centerpiece 17, no. 2 (Spring 2003): 6-7, 11 (Newsletter of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University).
COMMENTARY
“Putin’s War against Ukrainian Civilians Is Not New—Nor Will It Work.” The Hill, March 26, 2022.
“Biden Called Putin a ‘War Criminal.’ That’s Risky.” The Washington Post Monkey Cage, March 24, 2022 (with Daniel Krcmaric).
“The Problem with Putin’s Endgame in Ukraine,” cnn.com, February 27, 2022.
“Does Putin Really Want Regime Change in Ukraine?” The Washington Post Monkey Cage, February 10, 2022.
"Is Trump Hurting the Military?" The Washington Post Monkey Cage, June 2, 2020 (with Elizabeth N. Saunders, Alice Hunt Friend, and Caitlin Talmadge).
"Could U.S. Actions Topple Iran's Government? Here's Why It Would Be Extremely Difficult," The Washington Post Monkey Cage, January 11, 2020.
"Is There a Payoff from U.S. Intervention to Protect U.S. Assets? We Found Few Trade Benefits," The Washington Post Monkey Cage, October 26, 2017 (with Paul Zachary).
"Would Transgender Troops Harm Military Effectiveness? Here’s What the Research Says," The Washington Post Monkey Cage, August 1, 2017.
"The Trump Administration Wants Regime Change in Iran. But Regime Change Doesn’t Usually Work," The Washington Post Monkey Cage, July 31, 2017 (with Lindsey A. O’Rourke).
"The Truth about Obama's Drone Campaign: It's about Attrition, Not Decapitation," Huffington Post, January 16, 2013.
WORK IN PROGRESS
"The Causes of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change: A Review Essay"
"Controlling Hearts and Minds: Population Relocation in Counterinsurgency Operations" (with Kelly M. Greenhill and Stephen Rangazas)
"Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Mass Killing" (with Lindsey O'Rourke)
"Nuclear Compellence Revisited: Explaining the Success and Failure of Nuclear Compellent Threats" (with Jasen Castillo and Charles Glaser)
"Dictatorships and Coercive Diplomacy" (with Todd Sechser)
"Picking Your Friends: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and the Quality of Interstate Relations" (with Lindsey O’Rourke)
“The Power of Persuasion? The Mixed Record of Regime Change without Force”
"Sources of Insurgent Resilience in the Face of Adversity"
"Loyalty, Hedging, or Exit: How Weaker Alliance Partners Respond to the Rise of New Threats," Journal of Strategic Studies (forthcoming), published online, https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2020.1797690.
"No Business Like FIRC Business: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Bilateral Trade." British Journal of Political Science 47, no. 4 (October 2017): 749-782 (with Paul Zachary and Kathleen Deloughery; pdf).
"You Can't Always Get What You Want: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Seldom Improves Interstate Relations." International Security 41, no. 2 (Fall 2016): 43-89 (with Lindsey A. O'Rourke; pdf; data and replication).
"Forced to Be Free: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Leads to Democratization." International Security 37, no. 4 (Spring 2013): 90-131 (with Jonathan Monten; pdf; data and replication).
"The Illusion of Democratic Credibility." International Organization 66, no. 3 (Summer 2012): 457-489 (with Todd S. Sechser; pdf; data and replication).
"Overt Peace, Covert War? Covert Intervention and the Democratic Peace." Security Studies 19, no. 2 (Summer 2010): 266-306 (with Mary Lauren Lilley; pdf).
"How Smart and Tough Are Democracies? Reassessing Theories of Democratic Victory in War." International Security 33, no. 4 (Spring 2009): 9-51 (pdf; replication data; web appendix).
- Reprinted in Do Democracies Win Their Wars? An International Security Reader, ed. Michael E. Brown, Owen R. Coté, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2011).
"Restraint or Propellant? Democracy and Civilian Fatalities in Interstate Wars." Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 6 (December 2007): 872-904 (pdf; replication data; web appendix).
"Draining the Sea by Filling the Graves : Investigating the Effectiveness of Indiscriminate Violence as a Counterinsurgency Strategy." Civil Wars 9, no. 4 (December 2007): 420-444 (pdf).
"Introduction: Modern Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Comparative Perspective." Civil Wars 9, no. 4 (December 2007): 313-323 (pdf).
"Desperate Times, Desperate Measures: The Causes of Civilian Victimization in War." International Security 30, no. 4 (Spring 2006): 152-195 (pdf; replication data; additional table on timing of civilian victimization in interstate wars).
"The Problem with Negotiated Settlements to Ethnic Civil Wars." Security Studies 13, no. 4 (Summer 2004): 230-279 (pdf). Reprinted in Living Together after Ethnic Killing: Exploring the Chaim Kaufmann Argument, ed. Roy Licklider and Mia Bloom (London: Routledge, 2006), 89-139.
"The Holy Land Divided: Defending Partition as a Solution to Ethnic Wars." Security Studies 10, no. 4 (Summer 2001): 58-116 (pdf).
PEER-REVIEWED BOOK CHAPTERS
"Creating a Cordon Sanitaire: U.S. Strategic Bombing and Civilians in Korea," in The Civilianization of War and the Unpredictable Civil-Military Divide, 1914-2014, ed. Andrew Barros and Martin Thomas (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018), 196-220.
"Does Spreading Democracy by Force Have a Place in U.S. Grand Strategy? A Skeptical View." In The Case for Restraint: U.S. Grand Strategy for the 21st Century, ed. A. Trevor Thrall and Benjamin H. Friedman (Abingdon: Routledge, 2018; with Jonathan Monten), 80-107 (pdf).
"Step Aside or Face the Consequences: Explaining the Success and Failure of Compellent Threats to Remove Leaders." In Coercion: The Power to Hurt in International Politics, ed. Kelly M. Greenhill and Peter Krause (New York: Oxford University Press, 2018), 93-114 (pdf).
"It's a Crime, but Is It a Blunder? Investigating the Military Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization." In Civilians and Warfare in World History, ed. Nicola Foote and Nadya Williams (Abingdon: Routledge, 2018), 288-312 (with Kathryn McNabb Cochran; pdf).
"Military Culture and Civilian Victimization: The Allied Strategic Bombing of Germany in World War II." In Civilians and Modern War: Armed Conflict and the Ideology of Violence, ed. Daniel Rothbart, Karina V. Korostelina and Mohammed Cherkaoui (New York: Routledge, 2012), 72-95 (pdf).
"Targeting Civilians to Win? Assessing the Military Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization in Interstate War." In Rethinking Violence: States and Non-State Actors in Conflict, ed. Adria Lawrence and Erica Chenoweth (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2010), 23-56 (with Kathryn McNabb Cochran; pdf).
OTHER SCHOLARLY PUBLICATIONS
“Review of Jason Lyall, Divided Armies: Inequality and Battlefield Performance in Modern War,” H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable 12, no. 11 (May 2021), 7-14 (pdf).
"Review of Melissa Willard-Foster, Toppling Foreign Governments: The Logic of Regime Change," Political Science Quarterly 135, no. 1 (Spring 2020): 152-155 (pdf).
"Correspondence: Reconsidering the Effects of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change," International Security 42, no. 3 (Winter 2017/18): 172-77 (with Lindsey A. O'Rourke; pdf; supplemental materials).
- Please see the supplemental materials for a much more detailed response to the points Su raises in her letter than was possible in our published reply. In the memo, for example, we replicate Su's recommendation to drop all states that never experience a militarized interstate dispute (MID), and show that doing so does not change our statistical findings for overt types of foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC). This finding means that the difference between the results Su reports in her letter and those from our article ("You Can't Always Get What You Want") is accounted for exclusively by her decision to exclude Japan's assassination of Chinese leader Chang Tso-lin as a case of FIRC. We thus examine this case carefully and show that there are solid grounds for coding it as a FIRC.
"Correspondence: Friends, Foes, and Foreign-Imposed Regime Change," International Security 42, no. 2 (Fall 2017): 191-95 (pdf; with Lindsey A. O'Rourke).
"Introduction to Roundtable on Jasen J. Castillo, Endurance and War: The National Sources of Military Cohesion," H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable 9, no. 9 (2017): 2-5 (pdf).
"Review of Jessica L.P. Weeks, Dictators at War and Peace." H-Diplo|ISSF Roundtable 8, no. 7 (January 2016), 5-11 (pdf).
"Review of Jessica L.P. Weeks, Dictators at War and Peace." Political Science Quarterly 130, no. 4 (December 2015): 803-04 (pdf).
"Correspondence: Reevaluating Foreign-Imposed Regime Change." International Security 38, no. 3 (Winter 2013/2014): 184-95 (with William G. Nomikos and Jonathan Monten; pdf).
"Why Regime Change Is a Bad Idea in Syria." The Political Science of Syria's War, POMEPS Briefings 22 (December 18, 2013): 61-63.
"Regime Change Doesn't Work." Boston Review 36, no. 5 (September/October 2011): 16-22 (available online here).
- Reprinted under the title "Regime Change and Its Consequences" in The Use of Force: Military Power and International Politics, 8th ed., ed. Robert J. Art and Kelly M. Greenhill (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2015), 371-78.
"The Myth of Choosy Democracies: Examining the Selection Effects Theory of Democratic Victory in War." H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable 2, no. 12 (July 2011): 64-102 (pdf).
"Review of Hugo Slim, Killing Civilians: Method, Madness, and Morality in War." Journal of Strategic Studies 33, no. 1 (February 2010): 167-169 (pdf).
"Correspondence: Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War." International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): 194-204 (with Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam; pdf).
- Reprinted in Do Democracies Win Their Wars? An International Security Reader, ed. Michael E. Brown, Owen R. Coté, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2011).
- There was a small error in the published version of my response: on p. 203, the last word in the first paragraph on the page should be "insignificant" rather than "significant." My point here was that when draws were included in the analysis, not only did the linear specification of democracy explain more of the variance in war outcomes than the curvilinear one -- which is the key criteria for choosing between the two models -- but the fractional polynomial terms in the curvilinear specification were also insignificant, further undermining the contention that there is a non-linear relationship between democracy and victory for war initiators. This is shown clearly in model 3 in Table 1 of the additional documentation below.
- Additional documentation for my contribution to this correspondence: "Comparing the Effect of Linear Versus Curvilinear Specifications of Democracy on War Outcomes" (pdf).
- Further exploration of whether the relationship between regime type and victory is non-linear: "A Note on Curvilinearity, Democracy, and Victory" (pdf).
"Review of Michael C. Desch, Power and Military Effectiveness: The Fallacy of Democratic Triumphalism." Political Science Quarterly 124, no. 2 (Summer 2009): 342-344 (pdf).
"Review of Tanisha M. Fazal, State Death: The Politics and Geography of Conquest, Occupation, and Annexation." International History Review 30, no. 4 (December 2008): 845-847 (pdf).
"More Borders, Less Conflict? Partition as a Solution to Ethnic Wars," SAIS Review 26, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 49-61 (pdf).
"Targeting Civilians in Wartime," Centerpiece 17, no. 2 (Spring 2003): 6-7, 11 (Newsletter of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University).
COMMENTARY
“Putin’s War against Ukrainian Civilians Is Not New—Nor Will It Work.” The Hill, March 26, 2022.
“Biden Called Putin a ‘War Criminal.’ That’s Risky.” The Washington Post Monkey Cage, March 24, 2022 (with Daniel Krcmaric).
“The Problem with Putin’s Endgame in Ukraine,” cnn.com, February 27, 2022.
“Does Putin Really Want Regime Change in Ukraine?” The Washington Post Monkey Cage, February 10, 2022.
"Is Trump Hurting the Military?" The Washington Post Monkey Cage, June 2, 2020 (with Elizabeth N. Saunders, Alice Hunt Friend, and Caitlin Talmadge).
"Could U.S. Actions Topple Iran's Government? Here's Why It Would Be Extremely Difficult," The Washington Post Monkey Cage, January 11, 2020.
"Is There a Payoff from U.S. Intervention to Protect U.S. Assets? We Found Few Trade Benefits," The Washington Post Monkey Cage, October 26, 2017 (with Paul Zachary).
"Would Transgender Troops Harm Military Effectiveness? Here’s What the Research Says," The Washington Post Monkey Cage, August 1, 2017.
"The Trump Administration Wants Regime Change in Iran. But Regime Change Doesn’t Usually Work," The Washington Post Monkey Cage, July 31, 2017 (with Lindsey A. O’Rourke).
"The Truth about Obama's Drone Campaign: It's about Attrition, Not Decapitation," Huffington Post, January 16, 2013.
WORK IN PROGRESS
"The Causes of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change: A Review Essay"
"Controlling Hearts and Minds: Population Relocation in Counterinsurgency Operations" (with Kelly M. Greenhill and Stephen Rangazas)
"Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Mass Killing" (with Lindsey O'Rourke)
"Nuclear Compellence Revisited: Explaining the Success and Failure of Nuclear Compellent Threats" (with Jasen Castillo and Charles Glaser)
"Dictatorships and Coercive Diplomacy" (with Todd Sechser)
"Picking Your Friends: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and the Quality of Interstate Relations" (with Lindsey O’Rourke)
“The Power of Persuasion? The Mixed Record of Regime Change without Force”
"Sources of Insurgent Resilience in the Face of Adversity"